In July, new domestic rubber resources continued to lag behind consumption growth. Continuously tight supply-demand relations and declining social inventories have finally triggered a strong rally in market prices. In particular, the price of natural rubber has risen sharply, basically reversing the unusual situation in which natural rubber and synthetic rubber prices have been hanging upside down for more than ten months.
New resources increased slightly In July, domestic rubber resources continued to show slight growth. According to statistics, in July, the country's new rubber resources amounted to 410,000 tons, an increase of 5.2% year-on-year. From January to July, the total amount of new rubber resources was 2.52 million tons, an increase of 2.4% over the same period last year. In the composition of new rubber resources in July, natural rubber was 180,000 tons, an increase of 5.9% year-on-year; synthetic rubber was 230,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%.
Due to the severe drought in the main producing areas in the country, there was a large negative impact on natural rubber production. As a result, the country’s natural rubber production and market volume have not increased much. From January to July, the total output of natural rubber was about 260,000 tons, which generally maintained the level of the previous year. In July, the country’s synthetic rubber production was 138,200 tons, a slight increase from the previous month, an increase of 14.2% year-on-year, and the growth level has improved. From January to July, the total output of synthetic rubber was 910,100 tons, an increase of 7.3%.
The level of rubber imports continues to fall. According to customs statistics, in July, the national import volume of various types of rubber was 190,900 tons, a slight decrease from the previous month, an increase of 1.5% year-on-year, and the increase in imports continued to fall. From January to July, China imported 1.34 million tons of various types of rubber, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%, and the situation of declining imports again. Among them, the imported natural rubber was 730,000 tons and the imported synthetic rubber was 610,000 tons, an increase of 5.6% and 6.5% respectively over the same period of last year.
The consumption level has improved. After entering July, the national industrial production rate has dropped, but the vehicle output has remained at a relatively high level. The production volume has reached 475,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 27.8%. The export situation of tires and other rubber products has been good, stimulating The production of rubber products such as tires has grown strongly. According to statistics, in July, the country’s tire production (including all kinds of tires, the same below) was 26.63 million, a slight decrease from the previous month, an increase of 35.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate has increased. From January to July, the national tire production was 171.62 million, an increase of 29.7% year-on-year. Stimulated by the increase in the output of rubber products, the consumption of all types of rubber in July was around 450,000 tons, an increase of more than 20% over the same period last year. From January to July, the total consumption of rubber exceeded 2.8 million tons, which was a year-on-year increase of around 20%, and consumer demand was quite strong.
Judging from the relationship between supply and demand in July, the amount of new rubber resources continued to be smaller than the consumption, and the shortage was solved through the consumption of inventories. By the end of July, the stock of natural rubber in the Shanghai Futures Exchange had declined more than in June.
Strong market price increase In the past two months, tight supply at home and abroad and a strong surge in crude oil prices have stimulated rubber, especially natural rubber prices, to rise sharply. According to data from the Ministry of Commerce's important production materials market monitoring system, in July, the average price of natural rubber No. 5 rubber in key monitored areas in the country was about 15,975 yuan (ton price, the same below) rose by 23% from May; Rosin The average price of styrene-butadiene rubber was about 14,710 yuan, up by 10.2%; the average price of butadiene-butadiene rubber was 15,730 yuan, up by 11.6%. As the price increase of natural rubber is significantly higher than that of synthetic rubber, reversed the abnormal situation of price reversed in more than ten months.
Stimulated by the rise in spot prices, Shanghai Futures rubber prices rose strongly. According to the calculation of the relevant data, by the end of July this year, the average settlement price for the three-month (Jan., Sep. and Oct.) contracts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 16,805 yuan, an increase of 15.7% from the end of June. The highest monthly increase.
Although the prices of natural rubber have apparently dropped in the past two weeks, they are supported by factors such as strong demand, continued rise in oil prices, continuous increase in the cost of synthetic rubber production, and a lack of production due to drought or production increase in major natural rubber producing areas in China. There will not be a deep drop in prices, nor will it be long-term in the low prices.
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