Since the high of 42895 yuan/ton in February 2011, it has dropped to 11,450 yuan/ton in September 2014, and the rubber price has dropped by nearly 70%. Since 2015, rubber futures prices have oscillated around 12,700 yuan/ton. In the past four trading days, 1509, the main rubber futures contract, continued to rebound, accumulating a gain of 4.44% and closing at 13,050 yuan/ton yesterday.
According to the Guoxin Futures Research Report, the spot market has recently seen mixed performances and some varieties have differentiated. Total latex and smoke rubber were weak overall, with a relatively large drop, while composite, standard 2 and 3L showed some resilience. Buying gas can still be used for compound rubber, and the willingness of merchants to ship at low prices is low. Qingdao Bonded Zone as a whole held steady mainly, smoke film glue has been lower. The compound rubber market reluctantly sold more goods, low-priced goods were difficult to present, and the overall price remained relatively firm, and the price gap between plastic and rubber products widened. At present, the overall trading environment in the bonded area is in a downturn. Downstream factories still rely mainly on passive procurement, and the spot prices are significantly lower. At the same time, the external disk upside down is obvious and businesses have cooled down further, and short sellers have decreased.
As of March 13, 2015, the total rubber stock in Qingdao Free Trade Zone increased to 214,000 tons, and the main increase still came from natural rubber. Natural rubber increased by approximately 0.5 million tons to 169,000 tons as compared with the end of last month; compounded rubber decreased by 0.16 million tons to 33,200 tons from the end of last month.
“The current fundamentals of rubber are still not ideal. Although supply is decreasing, but demand is also shrinking, and there is no sign of improvement. The US’s double counter investigations will be difficult in the short term or will be implemented in the country. Therefore, domestic exports to the United States will face a difficult situation. In terms of export demand, the tire industry is facing enormous difficulties, and the market outlook will still show fluctuations within the range, said Tong Changzheng, an analyst at Huatai Great Wall Futures.
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