Electricity shortage highlights the difficult economic transformation

World Wind Power Network News: Since entering April, some regions in Zhejiang have implemented power-limiting measures such as “opening three stops” and “opening five stops” due to lack of power. Since the end of March, the supply and use of electricity in Jiangxi Province has begun to be tense. For the first time, there has been an “off-season” power shortage. In addition, Shandong Province, Jiangsu Province, Guangdong Province, Anhui Province, Hubei Province, Hunan Province, and Guizhou Province have also experienced varying degrees of power supply shortages, and power shortages have returned.

Specifically, the maximum load of Zhejiang Power Grid is expected to exceed 50 million kilowatts this year, while the province's limit power supply capacity is only 46 million kilowatts, a deficit of nearly 10%, and the most serious power shortage has occurred since 2004. Hubei currently purchases 21 million kilowatt-hours of electricity from outside the country, which is equivalent to 5% of the total electricity consumption of the province's main network. The power shortage in Jiangsu this summer is expected to exceed 11 million kilowatts, with a shortfall of nearly 16%, accounting for one third of the national total. Anhui announced in early April that the power shortage this summer is expected to be around 2 million kilowatts. The second quarter of Guangdong will also usher in the biggest power shortage in the whole year, which is expected to be about 4 million kilowatts. The current shortage of electricity has forced some factories in the province to start shifting production.

According to a reporter from the China Economic Times, the most direct reason for the recurrence of the power shortage is the widespread increase in electricity consumption. According to the first-quarter power market transaction information released by Shandong Electric Power Group, Shandong Electric Power purchased 9.134 billion kwh of electricity in the first quarter, which represented a year-on-year increase of 175.94%. East China Power Grid Corporation recently predicted that during the summer peak season in 2011, the entire network in East China was expected to have a maximum electricity demand of approximately 190 million kilowatts, which represented a year-on-year increase of 14.9%. The contradiction between supply and demand was outstanding. According to the Jiangxi Provincial Electric Power Company, this year, the increase in electricity load in Jiangxi ranks among the top in the country.

From a national point of view, the analysis of the energy economic situation and trend in the first quarter released by the National Energy Administration has predicted that the electricity consumption of the entire society will increase by 10% to 12% throughout the year. Wang Siqiang, deputy director general of the National Energy Administration, said that during the summer peak season, the electricity load will grow faster, and the supply and demand of electricity in North China, East China, Central China, and China Southern Power Grids may be tight. The above data shows that the current economic recovery in China is strong.

Looking further, the main cause of power shortage is the tight supply of power coal. The problem of coal supply is becoming increasingly prominent.

In fact, whether electricity shortages, coal shortages, or oil shortages are related to the continuing tight energy supply situation in China. At present, due to the rapid development of China's economy, the corresponding increase in the demand for energy and resource-type commodities is also faster. This is a normal phenomenon, but it should be noted that the surge in energy demand and the renewed emergence of energy shortages such as electricity shortages reflect the fact that China has changed its mode of development and the task of adjusting its economic structure remains very arduous.

Take the economically strong province of Zhejiang as an example. According to statistics from relevant departments, the electricity consumption in Zhejiang Province in the first quarter was 15% higher than that in the same period of last year, and it is expected to increase by 19% in April. Among them, the increase in energy-intensive industries such as chemical and non-ferrous metal production is as high as 20%, and the power sector is overwhelmed. Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that in the first quarter, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 14.4% year-on-year, heavy industry increased by 14.9%, and light industry increased by 13.1%. Among them, heavy industry rose by 15.6% in March, the fastest growth since July 2010. This year's tight supply of electricity has emerged earlier this year, which is closely related to the increase in electricity consumption in some high-energy-consuming industries and the tight supply of power coal.

This year is the first year of the 12th Five-Year Plan. The reporter found that during the interview, the investment enthusiasm of the localities was high, and there were many large investment projects. The rapid growth of the industry was directly reflected in the electricity consumption. Data show that in the first quarter, the national industrial electricity consumption was 789.6 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 12.14%; light and heavy industrial electricity consumption increased by 11.38% and 12.29% respectively year-on-year. The growth rate of heavy industry electricity consumption is continuously higher than the industrial average electricity growth rate.

In addition, according to the China Electric Power Enterprise Association, from January to March, the growth rate of electricity consumption of steel and building materials was higher than the average growth rate. The data previously released by CEC show that the electricity consumption of the four key industries of chemicals, building materials, iron and steel smelting and non-ferrous metal smelting increased by 9.4% from January to February, accounting for 32.7% of the total electricity consumption of the entire society. The share of power consumption in the whole society is higher than that in the fourth quarter of last year. The constraint effect of energy-saving and emission-reduction in the fourth quarter of last year suppressed the electricity demand of high-energy-consuming industries. However, the accelerated release of this part of the production capacity in the first quarter of this year further stimulated a substantial increase in energy demand.

In recent years, China has been making great efforts to “turn the way and adjust the structure”. The purpose is to promote the strategic transformation of the economy and get rid of the dependence on the development model of high investment and high energy consumption economy. However, the above facts show that this model still has the signs of re-emergence, highlighting the fact that the economic transformation is still very difficult.